Tadej Pogacar is not the Climber You Think He Is

Rahul Kumar

Pogacar is the most well-rounded rider in the world. He has won 4 races straight, and he can probably win the next 4 as well. Unlike most other GC riders, Pogacar can maintain his shape from February to November. If you teleported him to Antarctica right now, he could do 6.3 for 20 on the ice and ruin the dreams of every aspiring penguin cyclist. He has a nuclear sprint, especially against other climbers. He has no issues with the cold and wet. He’s great on cobbles. He’s undroppable on 7km 7% climbs. He has excellent fatigue resistance. He doesn’t crash. This is how Pogacar won 16 races last year.

Pogacar has won 3 races this year. One was a gravel classic. One was a puncheur’s stage. And the one climbing stage was tailor-made for Pogacar, with 10.6km @ 5.8% with a descent finish. Nobody at Andalucia, and possibly no rider in the world, is going to beat Pogacar on that finish, especially in February. Of course, nobody really cares whether Pogacar wins Andalucia. He’s paid, after all, to win the Tour. Do his performances this year tell us anything about his chances at doing so?

Pogacar is probably the best rider in the world, and he is a climber. Does this make him the best climber in the world? On certain parcours, absolutely. Repeated 20-30min climbs in the cold and wet, like his famous win on TDF Stage 8? The rest of the startlist might well just stay home. But if the TDF is not won on 35+min climbs every year, it is at least defined on them. Unless Pogacar can find minutes elsewhere on Vingegaard, he will need to, at the very least, defend capably on those stages. Can he do it?

Grand Colombier - 2020 TDF Stage 15

Pogacar, Roglic - 4:34:13

Porte - 0:05

M. A. Lopez - 0:08

Pogacar’s first experience of a 35+ min climb in the Tour was a successful one. While he couldn’t get separation, he unleashed his nuclear sprint to win the stage; Porte dropped in the last 100m and lost 5s, poor 500w peak MAL lost 8s in 200m.

Col de la Loze - 2020 TDF Stage 18

M. A. Lopez - 4:49:08

Roglic - 0:15

Pogacar - 0:30

Miguel Angel Lopez, the greatest long climber of his generation, especially to altitude, struck again on his way to a solo victory. Not for the last time, Tadej Pogacar couldn’t match the pace of Sepp Kuss, dropping from Roglic’s wheel but managing to limit his time loss on the road to 15 seconds, something that would quickly be rendered irrelevant by one of the all time great chokes in cycling history.

Tignes - 2021 TDF Stage 9

Pogacar - 6:02

Carapaz, Vingegaard, Mas, Uran - 6:34

After wrapping up the Tour on Stage 8, Pogacar for the only time in his career dropped all of his rivals on a long climb. Taking a further look at Tignes, however, it’s clear this is not a typical 35+ min climb.

One thing to note is the steepness of the climb: there are only two kilometers over 8%, and one of them occurs with over 17km to go. Pogacar, with several kilograms on his rivals Vingegaard and Carapaz, benefits from these shallower elevations. More importantly though, is the 4km of relative flat, including the 2km of total flat, in the middle of the climb. Tignes is more like two shorter climbs back to back than one long climb: 4km might not be much, but to someone who can recover like Pogacar it can be everything.

Ventoux - 2021 TDF Stage 11

Unlike every other stage on this list, this stage did not finish uphill, but rather with 20+km of descending. Due to the descent, Pogacar did not lose any time on this stage, even finishing in front of Vingegaard in the end. That being said, this was the stage that convinced me that Pogacar would be in trouble on Granon. Surprised at how quickly he lost time there? Rewatch Ventoux. With about 2km to go, Pogacar slips from Vingegaard’s wheel. By the end of the climb, he has given up 40 seconds to Vingegaard, and has almost been caught by the 2021 version of Rigoberto Uran.

Col du Portet - 2021 TDF Stage 17

Pogacar - 5:03:31

Vingegaard - 0:03

Carapaz - 0:04

A good, if not great performance by Pogacar. While he couldn’t drop Carapaz or Vingegaard, they are no match for him in the sprint and cede a couple seconds on the road.

Luz Ardiden - 2021 Tour de France Stage 18

Pogacar - 3:33:45

Vingegaard, Carapaz - 0:02

Very similar to the last stage. The three strongest men in the Tour come to the line together, and surprising nobody Pogacar takes the sprint.

Col du Granon - 2022 Tour de France Stage 11

Vingegaard - 4:18:02

Quintana - 0:59

Bardet - 1:10

Thomas - 1:38

Gaudu - 2:04

Yates - 2:10

Pogacar - 2:51

Oops. Ventoux wasn’t a fluke, and it wasn’t that he wasn’t trying. Having been baited into chasing a fading Roglic over and over on Galibier, Pogacar blows up completely and there is no long descent to save him. Does he lose 3 minutes if he doesn’t chase Roglic? Unlikely. Does he manage to stay close to Vingegaard? I doubt it, with the tiny climber enjoying big advantages on the 9% climb.

Alpe d’Huez - 2022 Tour de France Stage 12

Pogacar, Vingegaard, Thomas - 3:23

A little shallower than Granon, and there are no time gaps between Pogacar and Vingegaard. A dominant Jumbo performance shut down attacks for most of the climb, and Vingegaard never looked in any danger all climb.

Hautacam - 2022 Tour de France Stage 18

Vingegaard - 3:59:50

Pogacar - 1:04

With his chances of a third Tour de France fading fast, Pogacar shot his shot on Spandelles, a shorter climb. It didn’t move Vingegaard, and when Hautacam rolled around Pogacar’s troubles on long climbs ended the way they began: suffering in the wheel of Sepp Kuss. Pogacar didn’t crack under Kuss’s pull this time, but Wout van Aert’s short but effective pull did the trick, and Vingegaard put in another minute to Pogacar.

Pogacar has ridden 8 long climbs in the last 3 editions of the Tour de France, 9 if you count Tignes. He has dropped his rivals once, on the climb that played the least like a traditional long climb. On 4 others(Grand Colombier, Ardiden, Portet, Alpe d’Huez), he finished with his main GC rival, and his sprint allowed him to take home three of those stages. On Col de la Loze, Ventoux, Granon, and Huatacam, however, he got fully dropped. In 2020 and 2021, it didn’t cost him; in 2022, it did.

Pogacar can do many things, but he has never shown the ability to drop all the best climbers in the world on long climbs. His best case scenario is taking the sprint and the bonus seconds, and perhaps a couple seconds on the road. His worst case scenario is losing a minute or more. Of course, if he follows Vingegaard up every climb and then wins the sprint he is most likely winning the Tour. Crack even once, and lose 40s on the road + bonus? I wouldn’t want to be his domestiques, who will spend the Tour chasing down every breakaway to try to get that time back. And he better hope it’s not more than 40s.

So where is Vingegaard going to find this time? If he shows up in his nuclear 2022 form, there are several stages he could possibly drop Pogacar. But ASO have thoughtfully included one stage for Jumbo to circle on their calendars.

Puy de Dome - 2023 Tour de France

While not as extreme as Tignes, there are 3km of false flat in Puy de Dome, which will undoubtedly cheer Pogacar. Luckily for Vingegaard, Jumbo are bringing a team to the TDF that is probably feels more at home in Flanders than in the high mountains, and his rouleurs can set a hard pace over the relatively shallow first 9km. The last 4km, on the other hand, average a savage 12%. Granon’s finish is almost leisurely by comparison; if you crack here you are not coming back. This was the climb where Raymond Poulidor came the closest to winning the Tour. Anquetil cracked with under a kilometer to go, and lost 42s because of it.

If Pogacar gets over this relatively unscathed, his old friend Col de la Loze is back, with a descent finish, but that might not play in his favor with Wout van Aert lurking. Should he lose Vingegaard’s wheel over the top, he might see it disappear, as he is no match for Wout on a descent.

Sagan was one of the most well-rounded riders in the peloton in his prime, winning bunch sprints, reduced group finishes, punchy finishes, classics, and even medium mountain stages. But when Kittel got in front of him on a flat finish and produced infinite watts from his 90kg frame, there wasn’t much Sagan could do about it. Pogacar could win three monuments this year. He could win four. But if sub-60kg Vingegaard performs to his level on Puy de Dome and Col de la Loze, there might not be much Pogacar can do about it either.